June 28, 2009
Before you get too far in research this year, let me save you time. The strategy that will lead to a 2009 Fantasy Football League championship is drafting a top six quarterback, a top four tight end, and “Going Young” with your wide receivers and running backs.
The top six quarterbacks (Drew Brees, Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers, Phillip Rivers, Kurt Warner and Peyton Manning) last year scored 54 more points on average than the next six (through 14 weeks) and the top four tight ends (Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, Dallas Clark and Antonio Gates) on average scored 46 more points than the next four. This year Jay Cutler will be replaced by Tom Brady and the remaining names will stay the same. Make sure you check out my one page cheat sheet. The 100 point difference combined by NOT having these top players in your lineup will cost you the victory.
You may feel vulnerable at the wide receiver and running back positions by taking a quarterback and a tight end in the first five rounds. Not to worry. There will be plenty of value left at these positions. Just follow the theme “Going Young” and these positions will take care of themselves.
Before last year’s draft did you predict that Matt Forte (Chicago), DeAngelo Williams (Carolina), Maurice Jones-Drew (Jacksonville), Michael Turner (Atlanta), Steve Slaton (Houston) and Chris Johnson (Tennessee) would be top ten running backs? Of course not, but they were “Young!” and are “in” this year. Hence, out with LaDainian Tomlinson (San Diego) in with Darren Sproles, out with Joseph Addai (Indianapolis) in with Donald Brown, out with Brian Westbrook (Philadelphia) in with LeSean McCoy, out with Thomas Jones (New York Jets) in with Leon Washington and Shonn Greene, out with Cedric Benson (Cincinnati) and in with Bernard Scott.
For mid and late round flyers to fill your running back spot, take a shot at the above plus: Darren McFadden (Oakland), Chris Wells (Arizona), Ray Rice (Baltimore), Ahmad Bradshaw (New York Giants), Knowshon Moreno (Denver) and Felix Jones (Dallas).
The third year wide receiver theory (noting that a wide receiver breaks out and provides value in his third season) will again prove out this year. Calvin Johnson (Detroit), Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City), Anthony Gonzalez (Indianapolis), Ted Ginn Jr. (Miami) and Steve Breaston (Arizona) are all worthy of a roster spot and fit this mold.
For the not so well known third year wide receivers that you should take a shot at in the later rounds, look at: Mike Walker (Jacksonville) with aging Torry Holt, James Jones (Green Bay) with aging Donald Driver, Limas Sweed (Pittsburg) with aging Hines Ward, and Dwayne Jarrett (Carolina) with aging Muhsin Muhammad. Staying with the theme of “Going Young” means that Roddy White (Atlanta), Greg Jennings (Green Bay), Devin Hester (Chicago and top 20 this year), Michael Crabtree (San Francisco), Miles Austin (Dallas) and DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia) are all “in.”
The above as well as: Marvin Harrison, Isaac Bruce, Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens are all “out.” Yes, Terrell Owens is “out!” Before you send me e-mail on the contrary, consider the fact that Owens had eight games with five catches or less that he failed to amass more than 40 yards. For the entire season he only cracked 100 yards twice. This was with a better offense than he has now.
Stay tuned for my next session on how to execute “Going Young.”
--Note: Most content of the above article was published in The Toledo Free Press on June 14, 2009.
--Tod "FFLKING" Brooks
