NFL Week 1 Recap:  

We all know it is tough prognosticating week 1 games, but we will prognosticate every game nonetheless.  We don’t just select the ones we like…we put it all on the line.  Although I went 10-0 in outright games, with the spreads and over/unders…I was 10-10.  8-Ball was 3-3 outright games and 5-7 versus the lines and the over/unders.  We have set a productive target at the end of the year to be at 57%.  This would be a phenomenal mark in predicting every game, but feel this is achievable with some hard work.   

Before heading into the games, I will first give props to 8-Ball for predicting the San Fran/Zona upset.  He called the game San Fran by 3, missed the over under…but they did win by 4!  This is the only game that either one of us suggested to take the money line this week.

FFL King's Games:

Tennessee @ Pittsburgh

Blew the over/under and the line…Pittsburgh won as predicted.  One of the more disappointing games of the week in my eyes…had higher expectations.  Projected Big Ben right on for points, blew Parker and Johnson predictions.  Nailed Collins right on…also nailed Holmes for TD and a big game, nailed Gage for a TD and a big game, nailed Scaife, Miller dead on, Britt had a better game than I expected.  You have to be concerned if you own Parker and/or Mendenhall.  I wouldn’t worry yet about the Tennessee backfield.  I remain strong on Holmes being a top 15 WR this year… 

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis

This was the most disappointing game of the week for me.  Gonzalez going down stung, and in my opinion changed the outcome…Indy won as expected but did not go over or cover the spread.  Nailed Manning yardage but he fell short a couple touchdowns, close on MJD (less a touch), blew Walker who did nothing, nailed Holt dead on, nailed Addai with a touch and total points, also nailed Donald Brown and Garcon.  Clark missed by a catch and a TD but no way you can sit him.  Wayne out-produced the 8/115/1 TD by 2 catches and 47 yards.  Donald Brown owners will be happy when Addai goes down.  Depending on who gets the nod with Gonzo out, they are worth a pick up!  Jacksonville did what I thought they would…Indy disappointed in scoring. 

Detroit @New Orleans

We all know Brees went nutty. ..missed his yardage by 30 and also missed 3 of his touches.  Called a Kevin Smith TD but did not see him going 15 carries for 20 yards.  He made up for it with 7 catches for 52 yards.  Overall,  Colston, Moore and Bush all disappointed in such a rout.  Saints won as expected, had the over but missed the line.  Being that Brees spreads the ball around like butter at a corn party, you have to be patient with Colston and Moore…they will get theirs.     

Dallas @Tampa Bay

Nailed the line and over on this game…called for Romo to have 339 yards and 3 touches.  He went for 353 and 3 touches.  Nailed Barber with a touch but he fell short 40 yards, blew Felix Jones and the receivers, but Felix got dinged.  Don’t get too excited about Roy Williams…he only had 3 catches!  I did not see Tampa Bay putting up the production they did…both Caddy and Ward looked good.  I stayed away from Tampa in the draft but would suggest picking up Michael Clayton if you have a need at receiver.

Kansas City @Baltimore

Predicted the over and spread for this game…did not think KC would score 24 points though.  Flacco out-produced.  Rice was near projection without a touch, McGahee stole one of Rice’s touchdowns otherwise beat expectations by a few points.  Mark Clayton went 5/77/1…grab him if you can.  Bowe caught a TD as predicted, not much else to speak of in this game.  The Ravens gave up around 200 yards, do not worry about their defense… again I repeat grab Clayton if he is out there!  Bobby Wade is worth a shot in deeper leagues…when Cassel comes back, he could do some damage. Let's face it, KCC put up a fight in this one!

Washington @NY Giants

Called the game 27-17, ended up 23-17…thus, missed the spread by .5 but nailed the over.  Called Campbell for 179/1/1 and he went  211/1/1.  Called Manning for 228/1/1 and he went 256/1/1.  Called Cooley for 6/67/1 and he went 7/68/1.  Portis missed projections by a mile.  Bradshaw was projected to get 12.2 and got 10.1.  Missed Smith by a touch but called his yards and catches.  Pretty much nailed Hixon, Nicks and Kelly.  Missed on Santana Moss, Boss and Jacobs.  Manningham is worth a shot at getting in deeper leagues, he could be productive this season.  I still stay away from the Skins.

St. Louis @Seattle

Got the line right but missed the over because the Rams were so horrific.  Called Matty for 310/3 and he went 279/3.  Branch did not play throwing the receiving numbers off but missed on Houshy, nailed Avery, missed on S-Jax (really missed here), Robinson, short changed Jones 40 yards but called the touch.  Called Edge for 29 yards and he got 30.  Called Carlson for a touch, did not see him going off!  If you own any Rams you ought to be worried.  If you own the Hawks…nice job!  Keep Deon Butler (dude from Penn State) on your radar…a WR injury in Seattle makes him a weapon.   

Chicago @ Green Bay

Nailed Rodgers stepping up but missed his stats by a mile.  Nailed Cutler’s yardage but saw 2 td and 1 pick not 1 td and 4 picks.  Forte severely disappointed.  Grant projected for 74 yards and a touch and had 61 yards and a touch.  Jennings projected for 6/104/1 and he went 6/106/1.  Driver went 4/39 versus projected 4/69.  Finley and Jones were big misses.  Called Hester for 6/83/1 TD and he went 4/90/1.  Missed bad on Olsen.   I remain relatively high on Chicago’s potential at putting put points and credit a lot of the Forte/Olsen problems solely on Green Bay’s objective to limit their 2 biggest offensive threats.  Don’t give up on the just yet.  Cutler is too good to remain down.

Buffalo @ New England

Called the over/under but missed the line.  Called Brady for 340/3/1 and he went 378/2/1…called Edwards for 239/2/1 and he want 212/2/0.  Problem is they went to the wrong dudes…did not see Watson getting 2 TDs.  Called Fred Taylor 50/1 and he went 25/1.  Moss and Welker had productive games as predicted but missed on TDs.  Had Owens 4/54 and he went 2/46…would have been closer if he did not drop a ball…also the most disappointing player in the game Evans went 3/25, I expect more out of him.  Fred Jackson ran for 57 yards, caught 5 balls for 83 and a touch…had him for 55 yards rushing /6 catches 39 yards and a touchdown.  I am not sure about you, but I think Brady is going to throw for well over 5k yards this year with the way this defense looks…good luck to whoever is playing them with those 10 yard routes with Welker and Moss…this is not defendable…and if you do try and defend it Ben Watson or Galloway or Faulk or Maroney or Taylor or Morris are gonna make you pay!  And just think they were not real productive in the first quarter…wait till they put a complete game together…Moss and Welker both end up with 150 catches?  Who knows?     

San Diego @ Oakland

Wow, two games in a row squeeked out in the last minute.  Again missed the line but hit the over.  Missed by 2 td on Rivers, nailed Russell, McFadden disappointed projections, Bush exceeded them.  Miller was projected for 6/81/1 and went 6/96/0…Tomlinson was on projection, and Sproles was projected to get 42 rush/4 catches 60 yards and a touch…ended up 23 rushing yards/5 catches 43 yards and a touch.  Gates under-performed, but you are not sitting him anyway….Jackson missed on yardage but got the score.  Tomlinson owners should be happy that at least with the game on the line, he was sidelined with injury and not just benched because he is washed up…but Sproles owners should be optimistic.  McFadden owners should be a bit worried about all the goal line carries heading to Bush.  If you own an Oakland WR (outside of Schilens) I would be dropping them along with Russell and looking for another option.  When your completion percentage is less than Lebron’s shooting percentage….you got big, big issues…like in Major League, he should be called “Wild Thing.”  I would venture to say that if you parked a Bradley tank 30 yards away from him…and he throws at it…that there is nothing the ball hits besides the ground…or the waterboy.

8-Ball's Games:

Philadelphia @ Carolina

What in the world is wrong with Delhomme?  Over the past several games going back to last year he has been terrible.  I made 2 cardinal sins with this game as I overestimated the Panthers attach while underestimating the Eagles Defense.  A defensive score and special teams score through the game and my prediction out of whack.  However, did hit the mark on the over.  Expected a big day from McNabb (270 and 2tds) and was somewhat right as he had a combined 3 tds but only 80 yds passing due to injury.  Make sure you put him on your bench as he has had a history of missing time due to injuries.  This team is a super bowl contender and will not risk losing their qb for one week.  Hit the number on Celek as well as I predicted him to have (3/29/1) and he finished with 6/37/1.  He is a great backup tight end and borderline starter for those in deeper leagues.  8 Ball predicts at least 8 tds for the Philly End.  Missed the mark terribly with Delhomme (225/1) as he went for 73/4int though we did not call for a big day from him.  I also missed with the Eagles receivers due to injury to McNabb and missed with Deangelo and Steve Smith.   I don’t feel too bad about these as the entire world missed the mark on those two!  Looking ahead, I move Westy and McCoy up on my charts and move the entire WR corp from the Eagles down.  With that Defense I see a lot of running the ball especially without a healthy McNabb.

NY Jets @ Houston

From a fantasy perspective we had the JETS pegged!  However, nobody and I mean NOBODY could predict the J-E-T-S, JETS JETS JETS Defense to be so dominating!  Well I have drank the kool-aid and as the Monkeys sang, “I’m a Believer!”  Missed the mark on both the over/under and spread on this game!  Fantasy wise hit a homerun with Sanchez (230/1/1) as he went for 272/1/1 , Cotchery (4/70) who hauled in 6/90 and Stuckey (4/65) who surprised for 4/64/1.  Predicted (4/42) for Keller but underestimated his four catches as he hauled in 94 yards on them.  Hit on only one Texan (3/45) as Daniels caught 4 passes for 44 yards.  The entire world missed the mark on Slaton and Andre Johnson this week as we did too.  However, both remain a strong start each and every week.  Every now and then 8 Ball makes a mistake and is man enough to admit it.  I have made one on Thomas Jones this year.  Like all prognosticators I predicted him to be a mediocre play at best and have watched him slide into the fifth and sixth rounds in all drafts.  His solid performance of 107/2 means that he is a must start each week until otherwise.  Though we predicted a good day from Washington (84 total yds, 5 catches, and 1 td), he did not disappoint with 84 total yards and 4 catches.  Both players are starts in leagues that require a flex player.

Denver @ Cincinnati

So I admit it!  I watched Hardknocks on HBO.  I slept peacefully each evening after dreaming of visions of Ocho, Henry and Coles posting solid numbers each week.  My vision was myopic though as I failed to see Palmer sitting on the sidelines failing to develop chemistry with his talented group of WR’s.  I expected this game to be high scoring as there is great skill players at WR.  This game was painful to watch as I missed a 4 team parlay due to the Bungals.  Fantasy wise landed a 10 with Benson as predicted (112 total yards and a td) as he tipped the scales 118 yards and that TD.  Was close on Ocho (6/90/1) as he caught 5 passes for 89 yds.  All the Denver receivers majorly disappointed this week as Orton struggled to get them the ball.  Also missed the mark with Henry but did call little production from Coles.  As far as the future holds….I sit all Denver players until Orton is healthy and productive.  To start a Denver RB would be like THE KING having a night alone with his wife and forgetting his Viagra.  We are sitting Coles until we see his role and Palmer until he has his touch back. 

Minnesota @ Cleveland

Finally 8 Ball hits the MARK.  We told you it would be X-Mas Peterson (150/2) owners and he filled the tree with 180 and 3 tds!  Was also on the mark with Farve (170/1) who threw 1 td with his 110 yards passing.  Was also close on Quinn (210/1/2 ) as he slightly exceeded our projections with 265/1/1.  While many were predicting big numbers for Berrian  (4/50) who failed to catch a pass.  The crystal ball nailed the Vikings but was surprised at the Browns putting up as many points as they did and missed the over/under.  Also missed the mark on Braylon Baby (6/75/1) as he struggled with 1 measly catch for 12 yards.  Play PETERSON and find better options than the Vikings WR’s as their early schedule sits up to be the ADP SHOW.  Quinn showed some potential for Braylon, though he should sit until future notice.

Miami @ Atlanta

My 12 year old dog did find the bone on this one as we told you the Fins were way overrated and the Falcons would dominate.  Called Ryan (220/2) as we missed by 9 yards with his 229/2td performance.  Also did well with Bess (6/70) as he snagged 7/57  and may be the go-to-guy in that offense as Pennington can not wing it more than 25 yds downfield.  Little shocked at how well Gonzo fit into the flow.  His performance goes to prove he is a top 4 TE and must start each week.  Turner and White owners- don’t worry as he will open things up even more for you.  Ronnie Brown owners need to begin sweating as Rickey looked good and the Wildcat seems to be a thing of the past as Def Coordinators have it’s number.

San Fransisco @ Arizona

Told you to play the money line and you made 400 bucks on a 100 bet if you did!  Missed on Warner’s tds (300/3/2) as he struggled for 288/1/2.  Is it me or has he aged 8 years since we saw him in the Super Bowl?  In his defense his receivers are a mess due to injuries.  My magic 8 Ball sees a concussion or injury comin soon.  Sit him if you have better options until his WR’s become healthier.  Nailed the 2 tds for Gore but missed as we predicted 100 yards rushing for him.  Right on the money with Bruce (5/75) as he captured 4/74 last week.  Hightower (70 rush) embarrassed us this week as he caught 12 balls for 121 yards.  Can’t help but think this trend will continue as Warner struggles and his receivers stand on the sideline watching him.  Fitz is Fitz and still posted a decent day even though many are disappointed.  He will be top 3 in WR so don’t worry.