"The Oracle" Report

09/05/2010 From the Desk of The Oracle: 

I haven't written in awhile, been busy working and preparing for Vegas. As you may know from FFLKing's Diary, we had our local draft last weekend. I had the #1 pick and went against conventional wisdom and drafted Andre Johnson with the top pick. If I had known Roddy White and Greg Jennings would have been available with my pick in the 2^nd and 3^rd rounds probably would have taken Peterson or Rice with the top pick and then taken those 2 WR's. I'm not the slight bit disappointed in my team, however......the reason I took AJ at the top was because I felt there were several RB's in rounds 3-7 that had top 10 fantasy potential at the RB position, but the top 10 WR's would be mostly gone by my 2^nd pick, so I decided to get the top WR and go for my favored list of RB's available later in the draft. As it turns out, not only did I get 3 of my 5 RB targets (Best, Foster and Bradshaw) in the 3-7 rounds, but I also got AJ and Roddy White who I have ranked as my #3 WR.......I'm pretty convinced my team turned out better this way, even though the 1^st two rounds didn't go as I expected. I'm strongly leaning towards taking Andre with the #2 pick in Vegas as well where the WR's will go a lot faster in the top 2 rounds most likely. As for FFLKing and 8-Ball's draft, as reigning champ I got to grade their draft's and I gave them both an A-. Me and FFLKing tend to be attracted to the same kind of high upside/high-risk type players, so it's no real surprise that I gave him a good grade. 8-Ball had a very good draft, as well and avoided some of the crusty-old veteran types of players he's been known to draft in the past.

While I prefer to remain flexible and adapt to the draft, generally I do feel it's important to concentrate on RB and WR during the 1^st six rounds of the draft. Being strong at those 2 positions are where I feel you can most easily find an edge over your opponents. Having said that, if your are at a point in those 1^st six rounds where there is no value at those positions, that's when you should deviate and take the best QB or TE on your board. The TE position is a great example of this in the late 3^rd to early 5^th rounds where you can get an elite TE, but the RB/WR choices may not be much better than what might be available with your next pick. I tend to wait on QB's simply because I always feel like I can pick a very good starting QB in rounds 7-10 regardless of the year. I usually only consider a QB in the early rounds if I see massive value (like Rodgers in the 3^rd) or if I feel I've identified the “one” QB that will throw for over 40 TD's like Brady did a few years ago....otherwise I don't think QB's offer enough value to be picked early.

08/15/2010 From the Desk of The Oracle:

I've got some good news and I've got some bad news.  The good news is that the running back situations in Buffalo and Houston have gotten a lot clearer due to the recent injuries of Jackson, Lynch and Ben Tate.  The bad news is that the running back situations in Buffalo and Houston have gotten a lot clearer due to the recent injuries of Jackson, Lynch and Ben Tate.  I expect the costs of Spiller and Slaton/Foster to go up considerably by the end of preseason and they will no longer be much of a bargain.

One of the hot fantasy topics this preseason has been who will be this year’s Ray Rice?  The RB drafted in the first 5-7 rounds and produces as a top 5 RB.  While the “Ray Rice” type player doesn't occur every year, my candidates to fill that role are:  Forsett, J.Best and Spiller

As it relates to fantasy value, after preseason week #1 I'm thinking highly of players from the Packers, Ravens, Falcons and Eagles.  Not so much from the Cardinals, Jaguars and Titans.

08/13/2010 From the Desk of The Oracle:

I think the Patriots fantasy relevance will be largely tied to the performance of their defense this year.  This I expect to be under-whelming. For the last several years I've felt Pats players have been a bit over-valued in fantasy, but I think they could be had much cheaper this year and if the Pats D is as weak as I suspect, there will be some bargains.  Wes Welker isn't one of them, though, no way he performs close to the 3^rd,4^th or 5^th round value some are drafting him at regardless of any “media reports.” 

I strongly suspect Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush will benefit fantasy-wise from potential TD vulture Lynell Hamilton's season-ending injury but keep an eye on PJ Hill just to make sure.

For those wondering how I sleep at night having discounted CJ's fantasy value, all you need to do is realize it's not that hard to defend against the passing skills of Vince Young, especially with a mediocre WR crew.

I've come to notice that FFLKing.com is missing its third wheel in 8-Ball and wonder why that could be...then I realize there is not much of a demand for 2^nd place finishes......The Oracle

01/13/2010 From the Desk of The Oracle:

The Good, The Bad and The Ugly 

I'm sure a lot of you associate the title of this piece with a classic western starring Clint Eastwood that came out back in the 1960's. Rightfully so since it is one of the best westerns ever put on the big screen. For those who have frequently visited the site for the last 5 months, however, you'll likely also realize it's an appropriate description for the many fantasy predictions and advice given out by The King and his sidekick, 8-Ball. While acknowledging credit should be due for putting their predictions out there for all to see, there also needs to be some accountability not only to see how The King and 8-Ball have done in the past, but also to help them maintain and improve upon the information they provide on this site.

In determining whether a prediction is Good, Bad or Ugly, I will try and balance the following factors as criteria: raw accuracy of the prediction, how valuable was the prediction (could the blind monkey have called it) and how much info was available at time of the prediction (late Favre signing/Edwards trade, etc...)

8-Balls accountability report:

The Good

1. Benson to be a solid #2 RB and finish with 275/1000 with 7 TD's and 35 catches. Due to the sheer amount of flack 8-Ball took for pimping Benson, he deserves credit for this call right here. Finishing with numbers of 301/1251/6 and ending up the #20 RB in PPR, 8-Ball hit the nail on the head with this one recommending drafting Benson in the 6^th round, which provided owners with very good value.
2. Brandon Marshall to be the better “problem” WR to own this year over TO. While noone doubted Marshall's ability to be a fantasy stud, his attitude and a poor relationship with his new coach made drafting him in the 3^rd/4^th rather tenuous. Good call, Marshall was worth the risk.
3. Ahmad Bradshaw will outscore Derrick Ward and a recommendation to pass on Jacobs for Bradshaw instead. Having drafted Bradshaw in the 11^th of our local league, I liked this call from the start. Jacobs and Ward were big disappointments and Bradshaw proved to be an adequate flex player.

The Bad

1. Pierre Thomas to finish with 1,000/10 rushing plus 45/400/3 receiving. I could see this as a Good call, however, I think it belongs in the Bad category simply because Thomas didn't live up to his draft position. 8-Ball recommended confidently drafting him early in the 3^rd, however, he was an average #2 and more of a 5^th round value. Anyone drafting him in the 3^rd had to play catch-up later on.
2. Draft Kurt Warner as the 4^th overall QB. Warner certainly has the capability and weapons on O to be the #4 QB, however, there were risks associated with relying on Warner as your #1 QB going into the season. While Kurt avoided injury mostly, I think the Cards went to a shorter passing game largely to keep Kurt healthy. Unfortunately, that meant fewer passing yards and as a result Warner was less valuable.
3. B.Westbrook to finish as a top 5 RB. Why is this not ugly? It could be, however, I felt a small penalty for what amounted to only a few spots difference from the “general” consensus.

The Ugly

1. Torry Holt finishing with 75/950/6 and being draftable in the 7^th round as a 3^rd WR. 8-Ball has a tendency to fall in love with the old, crusty, dependable veterans. While Holt may have appeared to be the only WR option in Jax, he basically held that same role with the Rams in '08 and had clearly lost a step. I didn't see any reason why the Jags would provide better conditions to produce and Holt was a fantasy non-factor this year.
2. Skip the hype on Adrian Peterson and instead take Forte at the top of the draft. This one really is ugly, costing anyone who ran with the advice over 100 points in a PPR league. Forte is no-where near as talented as Peterson and the Bears trade for Cutler was an indicator that Forte wasn't going to be the lone offensive focal point, especially in the passing game.
3. Braylon Edwards rebounding for 80/1,000/8. Regardless of the trade to the Jets, predicting a rebound season from Edwards was a risky proposition on a Browns team with no QB, no other weapons and a WR who can't catch. Recipe for disaster.

            8-Ball's Good, Bad, Ugly Ratio: 33-33-33.

The King's accountability report

The Good

1. Gore will be a top 10 RB and solid starter in fantasy. He finished top 5 in PPR and lived up to The King's predictions.
2. J.Harrison or James Davis take over for J.Lewis in 2009. While it took a little longer than anticipated, Harrison tore it up down the stretch and provided a boost for some in the fantasy playoffs.
3. Romo will be undervalued this year and a potential top 5 QB. Romo provided very good value for those who waited until the 5^th round to draft a QB. Romo finished top 6 in WCOFF scoring.
4. DeSean Jackson, Derrick Mason, Ray Rice and Vernon Davis met or exceeded the stat projections made by The King.
5. The Raiders, Rams and Bucs all met the win totals projected.
6. Turner and Portis both ended up being big disappointments for being taken in the top 25 picks. Portis was a bust even when healthy and appears to be washed up. While it's hard evaluate injuries, Turner was still a mild disappointment when healthy for those expecting a top 5 RB.
7. Sproles, F.Jackson, Bradshaw, Mendenhall, Rice and Donald Brown all were good to great values for where they were being drafted while J.Lewis was a disappointment.
8. Beanie Wells was not worthy of a 5^th rd pick. Wells could be a fantasy stud in the near future, but he wasn't this year, producing fantasy value more similar to a 7-8^th round pick.

The Bad

1. Coffee, Jordan, Goodson, James Jones and Kevin Jones weren't worth the late round fliers the King had predicted. They may have had a couple brief moments, but they didn't help any teams win in fantasy.
2. Consider Gonzalez in the 5^th over Wayne in the 2^nd. Probably a solid prediction  at the time, but I still can't reward this pick since it may have resulted in owners passing on a top 3 WR for a player who never caught a pass this year.
3. Dallas will run the ball more this year. Dallas  rushing numbers this year were very similar to 2008 and since the difference isn't all that significant fantasy-wise, it falls in the Bad category.
4. The Browns will go 3-13 and compete with the Rams for the #1 pick in the NFL draft. While the Browns only went 5-11, they won their last 4 and lost any chance they had for the #1 pick.  The Browns can't win for losing. The Jags and Skins also missed the win total projected by The King.
5. Josh Morgan didn't live up to the stat projections made by The King. A few more TD's, however......I'm just sayin'.
6. The King recommended owners pass on Moreno this year in the 4^th-5^th rounds, too much competition in Denver for carries he said. It turns out there wasn't enough competition for carries as Moreno provided solid value as a top 20 RB.
7. Leon Washington will be undervalued on draft day. Even when healthy Leon was not producing above the level associated with his draft value, thus he was not undervalued. I was high on Leon myself, but I'm glad someone stole him from me in our local league......Ray Rice, on the other hand......
8. Calvin Johnson and Kevin Smith failed to reach their projections. Johnson was much more of a disappointment, however, failing to crack the top 20 WR's.
9. While not huge busts, M.Barber and Brady didn't reward their owners with the kind of year The King had expected them too.
10. Justin Gage and Branch will be good flex players and become good values in the 11^th and 12^th rounds. While it helps to have a “thing” with the QB, a “thing” won't help a WR when the QB is Kerry Collins. I'm not exactly sure what a “thing” is, but I'm quite sure it's not something to be desired.
11.  Hester was not a top 20 WR.
12. Bryant and Holt were the only big name busts among a list that also included TO, H.Ward and Ochocinco.

The Ugly

1. Favre is not a top 12 QB. That's correct, he's top 5.
2. M.Lynch is worthy of a 5^th round pick, no brainer. It's not so much the fact Lynch wasn't worthy of a 5^th round pick, but the no-brainer part of it that makes it ugly. As someone who actually drafted Lynch in the 5^th, I wish it had been a no-brainer.
3. Royal, L.White and Coles were all massive failures in comparing their actual numbers to what was projected by The King.
4. Even when Burleson was healthy, Seattle's passing game and WR's were    no match for Warner and the Cards trio of Fitz, Boldin and Breaston.
5. While it's not hard to envision a teammate catching more balls than Roy Williams, Martellus Bennett still managed to find a way not to do it making this an ugly prediction.
6. The Lions will win a total of 5 or 6 games in 2009. While the Lions were improved this year, this was a homer pick all the way.
7. Hasselbeck will be a top 10 QB. Hasselbeck was downright awful this year and sadly, I shared some of The King's optimism regarding the Seattle O coming into the year, having Hass as my #2 QB behind McNabb.

            The King's Good, Bad, Ugly Ratio: 30-44-26

In examining these reports, it may appear 8-Ball was more successful in his predictions than The King at first glance. However, I think mention needs to be made regarding not only the greater quantity of predictions made by The King, but he also had a few more specific predictions. In the final analysis, both The King and 8-Ball hit on enough of their predictions to validate their status as fantasy football gurus.

A message from The King --"The Oracle" Report launched in January of 2010 to allow Pat "The Oracle" Falvey an avenue to share his thoughts with you...although the 5 time champ and guru may see things that others do not, others are not nicknamed "The Oracle"...so pay attention to his unprecedented wisdom...