Boom OR Bust Players 2010 by "The Oracle"

             Every year there are players who either reward their fantasy owners with a performance significantly better than their cost (draft position) or penalize their owners with performance significantly below their cost. In order to draft a winning team in fantasy football, it's critical to identify players with boom or bust potential. There are also players who simply match their cost, but let’s focus on the boom or bust players, since this is where most leagues will be won or lost.

 QB

Tony Romo- Boom- I really like Romo's chances to become a top 3 QB this year, making him a great value for the late 3^rd to 4^th rounds of a draft. He turned a corner last year as a QB and with the addition of Dez Bryant and the emerging talents of Miles Austin and Felix Jones, he has a chance to be the top QB this year.

Matt Schaub- Boom- Schaub finished last year as a top 3 QB in most formats, so it shouldn't come as a surprise when he finishes as a top fantasy QB in 2010. However, he's still undervalued in the 5^th round and folks are sleeping on him a bit. He's in a fantasy friendly offense with the best WR in the NFL and an all-around strong supporting cast, there is no reason he isn’t top 5 in 2010…barring injury.

Kevin Kolb- Boom- Pass happy offense...check, talented WR group.....check, QB having success in limited duty.....check. If you don't spend an early round pick on QB, Kolb should be one of the QB's you target as your starter. Unlike McNabb, opposing defenses will not have extensive NFL game film to scout Kolb's tendencies. The teams that dare force Kolb to beat them in the air will pay..

Philip Rivers- Bust- I like Rivers a lot as an NFL QB, but with no V.Jackson for 3 games (maybe more), a likely improved running game and suspect secondary WR's limits his upside this year. There are situations where an improved running game will help a QB fantasy-wise, but the Chargers may increase the quantity of the run game and not just the quality…leading to less opportunities in the passing game.

RB

Frank Gore- Boom- I have never been that excited with Gore as a fantasy RB but prognosticate higher upside than in years past.  A mid first round pick could land you a top 3 back.  The Niners have two emerging stars in Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree to keep the running lanes open. The Niners also just drafted two high picks on their OL, one of which is known for excelling in run-blocking.  Despite having other weapons at their disposal, the Niners will be wise in maintaining a run-oriented O with the likes of Gore!  

Michael Turner- Boom- I like Turner for many of the same reasons I like Gore this year.....he's the lone ball-carrier for a run-oriented team. While I see the Falcons passing game improving with Ryan in his 3^rd year and two very good targets to throw to, I still see them as a running team first and foremost. Turner's raw talents may surpass that of Gore's, however, Turner is a non-factor in the passing game. Still, don’t be surprised if Turner hit pay dirt 20 plus times, pushing him into the top 5...a huge profit at pick #7 or 8.

Shonne Greene- Boom- Greene will be the primary ball-carrier in a ball-control run-oriented offense. Greene's talented enough to take advantage of this opportunity. While Tomlinson may vulture a few TD's, he's lost too much to be a threat to the younger Greene. Let's also not forget the Jets have one of the best OL's in the NFL.

Rashard Mendenhall- Bust- Talent and opportunity are two primary factors when evaluating a players fantasy prospects. Mendenhall has a very good opportunity in a Steelers team that would like to rely more on the run. He's going to be the primary ball-carrier on the team, there's very little doubt about that.  I'm just not sold on his talent level. As a Steelers fan, I've watched him play a little. I see his success last year more as a result of teams trying to stop Roethlisberger and leaving some big holes for Mendenhall to run through. Mendenhall doesn't pass my eye-ball test when I see him play. He's not real fast or quick, nor does he seem to run with a lot of power. Since he's the primary RB, I would love to have him as a 4^th-5^th round pick, but I would stay away in the 2^nd or 3^rd round where he has been going in ADP.

Steven Jackson- Bust- Jackson has talent and he's proven he can be valuable even with very little help from his teammates, but there's just too much risk this year.  He's been injury-prone his whole career and he is coming off an off-season in which he had back surgery.  The lack of upside with minimal supporting talent is not worth the risk. 

WR

Greg Jennings- Boom- Despite being in a high scoring offense, Jennings disappointed many owners last year. He's got a lot of upside and I think he's too talented to have another down year.  With his current ADP and a late 2^nd round pick, he won’t disappoint his owners this year.

Jeremy Maclin- Boom- Year in and year out the Eagles have been a pass happy team under Andy Reid. DeSean Jackson and Maclin are easily the most talented WR duo the Eagles have had in over a decade. While Jackson is a little better talent-wise than Maclin, Jackson will be drawing more attention from opposing defenses. Maclin becomes a real bargain considering he can become a #1 WR with a 6^th round pick, versus spending a 2^nd rounder on Jackson...they seem relatively interchangeable. If you believe this to be true, Maclin becomes a real bargain.

Anquan Boldin- Bust- I think Boldin has lost a step...he'll still be a good WR, but don’t expect to see  the explosiveness of years past. He has value in PPR leagues (70 balls or so), but what he does with those balls will pale in comparison to years’ past.  Without Fitz drawing the toughest coverage and a new system, he's more of a #2 WR than the #1 that owners may be expecting.