The King’s 2010 Draft Day Notes:

Wants, Needs, Likes and “Bear Traps”

Let's cut to the chase and keep it real...here are The King's 2010 FFL draft prep notes...I am not talking "sleepers, creepers, busts, deep sleepers, studs..." I am transcribing sticky pad notes, bar napkins, backs of old envelopes, pages ripped out of notebooks, and genuine thoughts from a remote barely used brain cell somewhere in my head to share with you true King backyard wisdom... 

Needs:

A top 7 Quarterback (Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Brady, Romo, Rivers, Schaub).  I will not rely on Kolb or Flacco to be my starter as there is too much risk in the scoring formats I partake in.  No need to be a superhero trying to prognosticate someone outside of this group leading the pack; let the other 5 guys in the league take a shot.

A Lion on my team.  Not just because I am a “homer” but because I think their offense will be fantasy significant this year.

Anquan Boldin…just a hunch with Ray Rice keeping defenses honest and Flacco can sling the rock.

Wes Welker…he is dropping way too far if he is healthy for a top WR in PPR leagues.

Wants: 

A top 6 Tight End (Clark, Gates, Davis, Finley, Witten  & Celek).  Sure a lot of pundits claim there is plenty of depth at the position and one can wait for real value…with Gonzalez and Winslow and a few others I could get by, but would not be happy.  This is why it is a want and not a need.  Any one of the top 6 can end the season as the #1 TE.  Not true for the remainder outside of a healthy Daniels.

A flex player that can score like a top 10 WR in PPR leagues.  The King has some tricks up his sleeves here.

A piece of the following Air Assaults (in order):  Indy, Dallas, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Diego, Baltimore, Philly, Minny, Houston & New England… and oh yes Detroit.

Dwayne Bowe in the late 4^th/early 5^th.  Cassel will be improved, Bowe will be the beneficiary.  Plus Charles and Thomas Jones will offer defenses something to watch out for.

Malcom Floyd in the 7^th round.  Tall and fast like Vincent Jackson…might just develop a relationship with Rivers while Vincent is on the shelf.

WRs In the 11^th/12^th rounds: Burleson (just in case Megatron is tripled), Roy Williams (just in case Austin is a decoy and Bryant isn’t “all that” and the guy lives up to his potential), Manningham (just in case Nicks does not live up to 4^th round status), Devin Thomas (a new Maclin for McNabb?).

WRs In the 16^th round:  Devery Henderson (just in case Meachem really isn’t worthy of a 6^th round selection) and Josh Morgan (just in case Crabtree and Davis let someone else catch the ball).

Likes:

Guys who can shoulder the RB load for their teams:  4^th round & later:  Benson, Addai (finished top 10 last year), Forsett, Caddy, Maroney. 

RBs with upside to be difference makers:  4^th round & later:  Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, Jahvid Best, Reggie and Michael Bush, Jerome Harrison, Ben Tate, Bradshaw, Spiller, Thomas Jones, Sproles, McGahee.

RB Forte in the 4^th round.  What if he returned to his 2008 form?  Sure he was a disappointment last year but provides decent value here as a top 15 back.

WR Percy Harvin late in the 5^th round.  A nice outlet for Favre and he can make things happen.

QB Roethlisberger is an option if you miss on the top 7 QBs.  Big Ben is also a fine play for those that take Kolb, Flacco or Ryan.  I also like Palmer, Stafford, Henne, Cassel and Young as backups.

WR Mike Wallace in the 6^th/7^th…Ward getting older (I say it every year) and this guy can cover some field in a short amount of time, and yes while catching the ball and scoring.  When Ben comes back, he starts on my team.

WR Braylon Edwards in the 8^th will do some damage with some time under his belt in New York.  A real running game threat with that powerful Offensive Line does not hurt his case.   

WR Eddie Royal in 10^th/11^th…if he is half of what many thought he would be last year, then this is a good spot for him.  Someone will have to catch the ball in Denver!

WRs James Jones in the 14^th and Jordy Nelson in the 18^th.  Worth a shot if an injury comes into play.  Heck, in Indy the 5^th and 6^th options in the passing game are 10^th and 13^th round selections.  With the economy the way it is, this is like Outlet shopping on draft day.

WR Mike Thomas in the 14^th round.  Less to lose at this pick than taking Sims-Walker (bear trap) in the 5^th. 

Tony Scheffler in the 17^th round.  Megatron, Burleson and Best might just open things up a bit for a good hands TE.

Willie Parker in the 17^th round.  At this point in the draft why not?

WR Harry Douglas late in the draft.  If he is healthy he could be the steal of the draft.

If you sit on TE…try Olsen in the 13^th round.  Martz may realize what most of us already know.  That this cat is the best receiver on the team.

Bear Traps:

If you are on the cover of Madden…you just might be cursed…stay away from Brees this year or you will be cursing yourself.

This year a bear trap is thinking that you have to take a running back in the first 3 (heck even 6) rounds of the draft.  If I am in position to take a top 4 RB I will do it.  Period.  If I am not in such position on draft day I might not take a running back until the 7^th round.  You need some support for this thought?  Here it goes…(Fantasy tip:  read these and then read the Likes again)

• Jamaal Charles…who is to say that Thomas Jones (9^th round) won’t keep doing what he has been doing the last few years?
• Shonn Greene/Ryan Mathews - who is to say that LT’s (10^th round) decline is not due to the poor OL in San Diego? TD vulture warning…
• Deangelo Williams – who is to say that Jonathan Stewart (4^th round) will not outperform Williams?
• LeSean McCoy – who is to say that Mike Bell (13^th round) doesn’t pull the antics he did in New Orleans?
• Mendenhall – If The Oracle (Steeler Fan) is down on this guy, (see his Boom or Bust article) than so am I!
• Wells – who is to say he won’t get stuffed with Leinart at the helm?
• Moreno – who is to say that this guy won’t see 9 jokers in the box without Marshall there?

For where they will be drafted the following big names will not meet your expectations.  I know a ton of people have heartache with this but I am going to keep it real with ya! …here they come:  Fitzgerald, Steve Smiths (Carolina & NYG), Ochocinco and Crabtree. 

• Sure Leinart could have a breakout year…he could also bust and be benched in favor of Derek Anderson…Yikes.  Fitzgerald might benefit from being the most talented WR on the team and get even more looks.  Give me a more sure thing like Wayne (Manning might go after passing record this year because he can), Calvin (pure upside), Roddy (Atlanta might just air it out), Austin (will run for Miles and Miles) or let me gamble on Marshall (heck Ronnie Brown might have a better pass completion % than Leinart in 2010). 
• Carolina Smith…well they might just run every play and whoever is on the other side of him is not going to scare the defense. 
• Giants’ Smith…does he have upside from last year?  For where he is going, I would rather pull Green, Grant, Pierre Thomas, McCoy than him. 
• Crabtree…3,4,5 balls a game and averaging around 10 points a week last year.  2 TD in 11 games…Does he have upside, sure he has nothing but upside from last year’s numbers but what has he done to earn an early 4^th round pick?  Give me Garcon, Maclin, or even Vincent Jackson…even if Jackson misses 3 games he will outscore Crabtree.  For those that feel Crabtree could be a top 10 WR, “You Cannot Be Serious.” 
• Ochocinco…with T.O. and Bryant out there plus a rookie TE Gresham who can catch, it sure seems that Ocho will disappoint folks taking him in the 4^th round. 

WR Mike Sims-Walker is too risky for the early 5^th round.

Cleveland Wide Receivers.  That is, unless your league format provides points for the players that are defending them. For both their catches and yards.

Any Ram not named Steven Jackson.

Devin Aromashodu.  Because this is the “Bear Trap” section.  Hester and Knox are going around the same time and from a speed perspective offer more for the new OC. 

Austin Collie in the 10^th round.  Even if he does compete with Gonzalez (13^th round) and wins (not guaranteed) he is the 5^th option in the potent attack.  If you can actually pick the correct week to start him then you need to start writing articles for FFLKing.com.

Taking a defense before the 15^th round and taking a kicker before the 18^th round.