The 2010 Not so Random Draft Strategy by The King

The answer:  Within the first 6 rounds, draft a TE or WR to start in the Flex position…meaning draft 2 TEs or 4 WRs in the first 6 rounds.  That is providing you are not in position to draft CJ, AP, MJD or RR.  If you are in position to draft one of the Big 4, then follow it up with 2 WR, TE and QB at a minimum…

The reason….

First off, nowhere in here will I waste the time to woo you with fancy statistics...I am going to keep with concepts and strategy here with some simple mathematics from last year.  Using historical stats to make future Fantasy decisions is not what will win you the league THIS year.  So I will bring forth draft day theory and strategy allowing you to separate from the pack of wolves you will be drafting against which is what will win your league.  With all of the media outlets and Fantasy Football publications out there, it is hard to gain an edge on draft day.  Each year my strategy changes depending on the landscape and so should yours.            

If your league has a Flex player position (most commonly one of the following extra positions that you chose to start an additional player from:  RB/WR/TE), then follow The King’s Creed for 2010 Draft Day Domination...“Separate yourself from the other teams in your league by having a Flex player that will post more points than other teams’ normal starters”…let me repeat this so it sinks in a little…read it aloud this time and internalize it…”I want to separate myself from the other teams in my league by having a Flex player that will post more points than other teams’ normal starters.”  If you can do this, then you can gain separation week in and week out from your competition…that is providing the other starters on your team score as theirs do.  If your league does not entertain a Flex player, you can still use the theme of the message in helping you prepare to dominate on draft day.  Modify the below to maximize your starting line-up points.        

In first preparing for Draft Day, analyze the positions you like in each of the rounds.  Do this by highlighting players you like in each round based on Average Draft Position data that is tailored with your scoring system and starting line-up requirements (www.mockdraftcentral.com and www.antsports.com are both solid places to find such information to use).  You can put Average Draft Position data into a Mock Draft format for your review.  While doing so, you should come up with perceived position “drop offs” by round.  This is where the players you like at a certain positions start and stop based on the rounds they are going in.  When you have defined your “drop offs” then you have, in turn, found your perceived positional “sweet spots.” When you combine your perceived positional “sweet spots” with your perceived positional depth perception, you are on your way in developing a strategy that you can execute on draft day that will separate you from your peers.  This is an essentially fundamental and key concept worth repeating… When you combine your perceived positional “sweet spots” with your perceived positional depth perception, you are on your way in developing a strategy that you can execute on draft day that will separate you from your peers.  I define my perceived positional depth perception as how deep a certain Fantasy Football position is as related to the starting line-up requirements of the league. 

Let me explain…in 2010 The King’s QB perceived positional depth perception is DEEP…outside of Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Brady, Romo, Schaub and Rivers (7 total), there are others who can have productive years.  This leaves you with the potential of waiting on a QB if you want to and not drafting one in the early rounds.  In 12 team leagues you have to come up with 5 names outside of the 7 listed above that you would be happy with as a starter…how about the following:  Flacco, Kolb, Eli Manning, Favre and Ryan?  The weekly point difference between the top QB and the 10^th QB in 2009 was around 5.5 (helped by Rodgers’ almost 1.5 point difference compared to 2^nd).  The difference between the 5^th best QB to the 10^th was a 1.5 point spread…negligible, at best.  The top starter to the 12^th QB represented a 7 point spread.  I will contend though, that there is no good reason to be in a point disadvantage at the QB position and to pass on a QB in the early rounds of 2010, dependent on how your draft goes.  The top 6 QBs from last year came as no surprise as they were pretty much on everyone’s lists for being the top QBs prior to draft day.  Nearly everyone had 5 of those names correct.  Pretty predictable production and a safe play on draft day this year to take any of the top 7 names above.  With these cats spreading through the first 5 rounds of the draft, you can take one without sacrificing the rest of your team.  Based on reviewing the Average Draft Positions, the late 3^rd and early 4^th rounds are my QB sweet spots.  Meaning I can still get a top 5 QB in Romo, Brady or even Schaub without paying the price of a 1^st or 2^nd round pick in doing so.  After this, I see a drop off at the end of the 5^th round…which is my perceived position drop off.  With all of that said, I will plan on nabbing a QB within the first 5 rounds of my draft but will not take one earlier than I see their value...and if need be will wait until the later rounds to grab one of the other 5 I have listed above.  As always, I will remain Flexible on draft day in maximizing my starting line-up points and will not be pigeon holed into drafting a position in a round without taking into consideration the events of the draft itself.  The primary reason I want to draft a top QB is the other 5 names represent a lot of risk…more risk than needed with the facts at hand.        

At RB last year, outside of the top 4 that are going this year, 4.5 points per week separated the 5^th best back per week compared to the 20^th back...and only another 2 points per week from the 20^th back to the 34^th back.  The top starter to the 24^th back represented a 13.5 point spread (keep in mind CJ was 7.5 points better than the 5^th back though, taking him out of the equation puts the spread closer to 10 points).  The running backs however, are largely more unpredictable than the other positions…Addai was 6^th, CJ was 1^st, Ricky Williams and Thomas Jones were top 10 and Hightower was 12^th….Forte 13^th and Fred Jackson was top 20, and the list goes on…With all of the above in play, and all of the running back by committees out there, my position depth perception at RB is DEEP.  Looking at Mock Drafts, I see the 6^th – 10^th rounds being the RB sweet spot.  Surely there is a drop off after the first 4 on the board however, the next drop off does not occur until after the 9^th or 10^th rounds (my perceived position drop off) based on the 4.5 spread listed above.  In the 6^th – 10^th rounds I can load up on Reggie Bush, Brandon Jacobs, Justin Forsett, Jerome Harrison, Ricky Williams, Carnell Williams, Bradshaw, Thomas Jones, Portis, Michael Bush, Sproles, Tomlinson, Maroney and the list goes on…these cats can certainly make the top 20 (not to mention the top 34) and also have the capacity of cracking the top 10 (of which nobody can accurately predict in August).  They are also no lesser guaranteed top 20’s than folks taken in the earlier rounds.  By waiting until the later rounds to draft a RB I am inserting risk into my draft…but a calculated one. 

At WR last year, the difference between the top WR and the 7^th WR was 2.5 points per game.  The difference between the 7^th WR and the 23^rd WR was 5 points per game.  23^rd to 36^th was another 2.5 points per game.  From top starter to 36^th, the spread was 10.5 points.  The difference in the 10 points from starting position for RB (I took CJ out of the equation) and the WR position is that the top 25 WR are pretty predictable.  The only WRs that entered the top 25 last year that were surprises should have been the following:  Austin, Steve Smith (NYG), Sidney Rice, Sims-Walker and Meachem…the other 20 you could see coming.  In looking at this year’s Average Draft Positions, my perceived position drop off is after the 6^th round where 30 WR names will be off the board.  Not so surprising considering the fact that 5 names may again creep into the top 25 this year (25+5 sneak ins = 30).  The problem here is that not every team has 3 WR at this point to fill out their starting line-up requirements, else 36 names would be called…this makes my position depth perception SHALLOW at WR in 2010.  My WR sweet spots are rounds 1-6 for starters and again in rounds 12-14 for backups…The fact that I have to start a minimum 3 WR and potentially 4 if one is used as a Flex position, the WR position becomes a focal point of mine on draft day.  If I amass 4 out of the top 25 WR using my cheat sheet, this means that my 4^th WR will outscore the 22^nd best RB and surely out duel any other team’s Flex player.  This year, I see too much risk in not filling this critical position…one that I am not willing to take.  This is my entry strategy for the draft if I do not have a top 4 pick…selecting 4 WRs in the first 6 rounds.             

At TE last year, Clark outscored Gates and Davis by nearly 2 points per game and they outscored Celek and Gonzo by another 2 points per game with Witten and Winslow trailing them by nearly another point.  From 1^st to 7^th there was a 5 point per game gap and an 8 point gap from the 1^st the 12^th best TE.  While many a folk perceive the TE position to be DEEP this year, it is not deep enough to be the last one to draft the position.  An 8 point gap is too much to sacrifice and similar to my thoughts on QB, there is no good reason to make this sacrifice.  This becomes amplified with the fact that Clark is being taken in the late 3^rd round of drafts this year and he scored better than the 8^th best WR.  14 WR are typically off the board before Clark this year…The TE position (similar to the QB and WR spots) is pretty predictable.  Most everybody had at least 4 of the top 6 TEs identified on draft day in 2009…This year you can surely mark, barring injury of course, Clark, Gates, Witten, Celek, Finley and Davis as pretty safe top TEs.  Based on Average Draft Positions, my TE sweet spot is in the 4^th and 5^th rounds.  My position depth perception is NEUTRAL.   Davis and Gates produced better than the 9^th best RB and 15^th best WR at over 15 points per game.  If I were in position to field 2 of the top TEs, I not only take these points off the board away from my competition, I have just equaled the output of 2 of the top 12 WR.  The reason I want a top TE this year is the same as the risk associated with the QB position…just not worth it!  If I can land both Gates and Clark, I just might take that risk and exploit the WR position further in my secondary sweet spot.

My first inclination heading into my drafts, (which are all PER/SCOFF formats) outside of the first 4 selections is to draft 4 WRs, a QB and a TE in the first 6 rounds.  I will then have an advantage at the Flex position and take my shots at later round RBs that will put up respectable RB position points.  12 points per game gets me 2 RBs in the top 20…14 points per game gets me 2 Rbs in the top 12…this I can do and in this I will dominate!  You can chose the conservative route, stay within your current paradigms and draft running backs that will lead you to look over your shoulder all year wondering if their backup that someone else drafted will continue to steal your RB touchdowns…or you can join the King in Dominating 2010 Fantasy Football. 

Of course, I will abandon my above first inclination if I see another route with better value allowing me to execute my strategy…”separating myself from the other teams in my league by having a Flex player that will post more points than other teams’ normal starters.”  The only thing that is for certain heading into a draft is that all my potential routes will be identified to do so…and I suggest you do the same.

As always, best of luck on draft day…